BAFTAS 2016: Predicting Who Will Win and Who Could Win
This Sunday marks the 69th BAFTA Awards which has now firmly staked its place two-weeks prior to the big show in Hollywood, making it a must watch. Will The Revenant reign supreme or can Spotlight, The Big Short, Bridge of Spies or even the Oscar snubbed Carol crash the party? Below are our predictions.
best film
Nominees: The Revenant, Spotlight, The Big Short, Carol, Bridge of Spies
Winner: Spotlight
Could Win: The Revenant or The Big Short. Don’t rule out Carol
A real tough category. When nominees were announced Carol and The Revenant would have been most people’s picks. Since then, Spotlight and The Big Short have grew in stature, in particular the latter. It’s an almost impossible task to predict who BAFTA voters will opt for. Smart money would suggest The Revenant, but it’s not against all possibility voters go for the not-Oscar-nominated Carol to make a point. The Big Short is probably a little too brash for BAFTA and considering most voters are actors, Spotlight could likely walk out victorious. It has a compelling narrative and is a great ensemble piece.
outstanding british film
Nominees: 45 Years, Amy, Brooklyn, The Danish Girl, Ex Machina, The Lobster
Winner: Brooklyn
Could Win: 45 Years
British film has a lot to be proud of with this very, very eclectic group of movies that make up this category. You can probably rule out Asif Kapadia’s brilliant Amy as it will romp home in the Best Documentary category; The Lobster is the outsider and will probably just be happy with the notoriety; The Danish Girl is a little too award friendly for voters to plump for; Ex Machina has a chance but will find it tough going up against 45 Years and Brooklyn. Brooklyn for me will likely edge past 45 Years. However, both beat to the same drum narratively speaking, so it really could go either way.
best actor
Nominees: Bryan Cranston (Trumbo), Matt Damon (The Martian), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant), Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs), Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
Winner: Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
Could Win: Matt Damon (The Martian)
Is this even a contest? Expect Leo to hop-up on stage and pick up the BAFTA. His closest competitor will come in the form of Matt Damon but he’ll likely fall short. Bryan Cranston and Michael Fassbender probably deserve more props for their respective performances, whilst Eddie Redmayne is the complete outsider for his role in a very awards-bait movie.
best Actress
Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Carol), Brie Larson (Room), Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn), Maggie Smith (The Lady in the Van), Alicia Vikander (The Danish Girl)
Winner: Brie Larsson (Room)
Could Win: Saoirse Ronan (Brooklyn)
Much like the Best Actor category, this is a fairly one-horse race if it were the Oscars. But we’re on British soil and Brie Larson may not have it all her own way. Larson has been gaining traction ever since she picked up the Golden Globe for her role in Room and expect her to pick up the Oscar in two-weeks time, but Saoirse Ronan has a genuine chance. Brooklyn is a British film and home field advantage counts at the BAFTAs.
best supporting actor
Nominees: Christian Bale (The Big Short), Benicio Del Toro (Sicario), Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation), Mark Ruffalo (Spotlight), Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Winner: Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies)
Could Win: Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)
Bridge of Spies hasn’t had much momentum heading into award season, even though it has racked up a healthy number of nominations across the board at most shows. Its strongest weapon lays in the form of Mark Rylance, who will likely nab the gong here. Idris Elba is the likeliest to steal a march on Rylance if BAFTA decide to look elsewhere. Total outsider: Mark Ruffalo — but I can’t see it.
best supporting actress
Nominees: Jennifer Jason Leigh (The Hateful Eight), Rooney Mara (Carol), Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina), Julie Walters (Brooklyn), Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs)
Winner: Alicia Vikander (Ex Machina)
Could Win: Julie Walters (Brooklyn)
This one could go either way — it’s a strong, competitive category. I have a feeling that Alicia Vikander will win something on the night. She’s had a stellar year and I would be surprised if she wasn’t given this award for the film that announced her arrival. Rooney Mara is her biggest rival but Julie Walters has a legitimate shout, too. I have a feeling BAFTA will give a lot of love to Brooklyn during the night (I think I may have made my point now?)
best director
Nominees: Adam McKay (The Big Short), Steven Spielberg (Bridge of Spies), Todd Haynes (Carol), Ridley Scott (The Martian), Alejandro G. Iñárritu (The Revenant)
Winner: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, (The Revenant)
Could Win: Ridley Scott (The Martian)
Considering they never went with Alejandro G. Iñárritu last year for his work on Birdman, I expect BAFTA to show him love this time around. His biggest rival will be Ridley Scott but it’s hard seeing them looking past Iñárritu. A complete outsider would be Steven Spielberg, but that would be a total shock even though it is Spielberg.
best adapted Screenplay
Nominees: The Big Short, Brooklyn, Carol, Room, Steve Jobs
Winner: Carol
Could Win: Steve Jobs
This could well be Carol’s only win of the night. BAFTA will likely give it something to shout about when the night is said and done. Considering Carol was such a hit at festivals and with critics, it’s hard seeing it drop off the way it has in award season. If it doesn't win, could this open the door for Aaron Sorkin and Steve Jobs? Sorkin was snubbed by the Oscars but loved by the Golden Globes — what side of the fence will BAFTA sit on?
best original screenplay
Nominees: Bridge of Spies, Ex Machina, The Hateful Eight, Inside Out, Spotlight
Winner: Spotlight
Winner: Spotlight
I would be surprised if BAFTA gave this award to a screenplay that doesn’t hold a Best Film nomination. With that train of thought, that leaves only Spotlight and Bridge of Spies as potential winners. Spotlight is the stronger of the two and will probably win. Quentin Tarantino could well upset the apple cart though. We are talking about QT here — a master screenwriter who takes pride in working from a blank page and once again wrote a brilliantly original script in The Hateful Eight. Never rule him out.
as for the rest...
Star Wars: The Force Awakens and Mad Max: Fury Road will embroil themselves in an interesting battle early in the night as they attempt to out-do one another in the technical categories such as Best Production Design, Best Sound and Best Special Visual Effects. If I was a betting man, I would say Mad Max will likely come out on top. It’s still a head-scratcher that BAFTA totally overlooked the full-throttled action flick when the Golden Globes and even the Oscars gave it big attention. They will attempt to make it up to George Miller and co.
Three total no-brainer wins of the night go to Inside Out for Best Animated Film, Amy for Best Documentary and Alex Garland winning Outstanding Debut for Ex Machina.
Best Cinematography will likely be a sprint between The Revenant and Mad Max: Fury Road. Flip of a coin on who wins.
Best Editing could be a close fought battle. I personally think The Big Short is expertly put together, but Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant aren’t too shabby either.
Best Film Not in the English Language will probably head in the direction of Force Majeure. Although The Assassin and Timbuktu have chances.
Best Original Music could be the only award heading in the direction of Quentin Tarantino and The Hateful Eight for composer Ennio Morricone. It won’t be easy though as Star Wars: The Force Awakens is also up for the award.
EE Rising Star Award is an interesting one this year. Could Brie Larson take it even though she’s the frontrunner for Best Actress? Or do Taron Egerton, John Boyega and Dakota Johnson have a chance? I’d pick Boyega. He’s had a big year and it’s a chance for BAFTA to tip their hat to Star Wars, too.
