Film Independent Spirit Awards 2016: Predicting Who'll Win and Who Could Win
Whilst most people are gearing up for the biggest night in Hollywood this Sunday, independent filmmakers have their big night the day before the Oscars as the grandaddy of indie film — the 31st Film Independent Spirit Awards — rolls into tinseltown on Saturday.
The Spirit Awards tend to be an unpredictable affair. Over its thirty-year history the results of the Spirits generally best represent what was well received during the year amongst viewers and veers away from popularity and buzz.
In recent years, however, there has been a slight crossover between the Spirits and the Oscars with films such as Birdman and 12 Years a Slave claiming the biggest awards the past two-years. But given the wide range of this years nominees, a lot of films that may be a little too out there for Academy tastes will have their chance to shine.
Below is our attempt at trying to predict the (almost) unpredictable.
BEST FEATURE
Nominees: Anomalisa, Beasts of No Nation, Carol, Spotlight, Tangerine
Will Win: Spotlight
Could Win: Tangerine
With Lenny Abrahamson’s Room not making the cut, you would suspect that Spotlight and Carol are the clear frontrunners. Yet, Carol has lost a lot of momentum during award season with not many shows warming to it, which should give Spotlight the upper hand. But don’t be so quick to rule iPhone movie Tangerine out. It harnesses a resourceful story and excellent production work — it oozes that indie spirit.
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: Sean S. Baker (Tangerine), Cary Fukunaga (Beasts of No Nation), Todd Haynes (Carol), Tom McCarthy (Spotlight), David Robert Mitchell (It Follows)
Will Win: Tom McCarthy (Spotlight)
Could Win: Sean S. Baker (Tangerine)
This is a tough one to call with Spotlight, Tangerine and It Follows all displaying great feats of independent filmmaking. The careful work and precision of Carol may well see Haynes walking away the winner but I can see voters leaning towards Tom McCarthy.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Anomalisa, The End of the Tour, Spotlight, Carol, Bone Tomahawk
Will Win: Spotlight
Could Win: Anomalisa
Spotlight has been picking up the screenplay award at almost every award show this season and I don’t see that trend stopping here. Charlie Kaufman’s work on Anomalisa is superb. If they decided to look elsewhere, it'll likely be in his direction.
BEST FIRST FEATURE
Nominees: The Diary of a Teenage Girl, James White, Manos Sucias, Mediterranea, Songs My Brothers Taught Me
Will Win: The Diary of a Teenage Girl
Could Win: James White
So very close, but Diary of a Teenage Girl just pips James White. In fact, James White to win. Hold on, am picking Diary of a Teenage Girl again. Screw it... flip a coin.
BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Nominees: Me and Earl and the Dying Girl, Mediterranea, Room, The Diary of a Teenage Girl, The Mend
Will Win: Room
Could Win: Me and Earl and the Dying Girl
Much like Best First Feature, this category has a cigarette paper separating many of the nominees. With buzz around the film quite high, I see Room coming out on top. They'll be love for Me and Earl and the Dying Girl though, so this should go down to the wire.
BEST MALE LEAD
Nominees: Christopher Abbott (James White), Abraham Attah (Beasts of No Nation), Ben Mendelson (Mississippi Grind), Jason Segel (The End of the Tour), Koudous Seihon (Mediterranea)
Will Win: Jason Segel (The End of the Tour)
Could Win: Abraham Attah (Beasts of No Nation)
Jason Segel is ever so slightly ahead of Christoher Abbott if you where picking favourites. This could go a number of ways with Abraham Attah being the likely recipient if an upset occurred.
BEST FEMALE LEAD
Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Carol), Brie Larson (Room), Rooney Mara (Carol), Bel Powley (The Diary of a Teenage Girl), Kitana Kiki Rodriguez (Tangerine)
Will Win: Brie Larson (Room)
Could Win: Rooney Mara (Carol) or Kitana Kiki Rodriguez (Tangerine)
This will be an interesting outcome as Brie Larson takes on Cate Blanchett. I expect Larson’s name to be read out, and the same to happen the following night at the Oscars when the two actresses do battle once again. Kitana Kiki Rodriguez is a total shot in the dark but she gave a solid performance. Kudos to the Spirits for recognising Rooney Mara’s performance as a lead and not a supporting role.
BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Nominees: Kevin Corrigan (Results), Paul Dano (Love & Mercy), Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation), Richard Jenkins (Bone Tomahawk), Michael Shannon (99 Homes)
Will Win: Idris Elba (Beasts of No Nation)
Could Win: Paul Dano (Love & Mercy) or Michael Shannon (99 Homes)
I would love to see Paul Dano win this for his brilliant performance of a young Brian Wilson but I have an inkling Idris Elba will be the victor. Michael Shannon may well nip him at the post in a category that could go a number of ways.
BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Nominees: Robin Bartlett (H.), Marin Ireland (Glass Chin), Jennifer Jason Leigh (Anomalisa), Cynthia Nixon (James White), Mya Taylor (Tangerine)
Will Win: Mya Taylor (Tangerine)
Could Win: Jennifer Jason Leigh (Anomalisa)
I truly believe the Spirits will reward Tangerine with something significant as it broke serious ground in independent filmmaking. Best Supporting Female is the likely category for which it gets a win. Mya Taylor not only deserves this award for her excellent portrayal but it would be huge for the entire transgender community if she won.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Nominees: Best of Enemies, Heart of a Dog, The Look of Silence, Meru, The Russian Woodpecker, (T)ERROR
Will Win: The Look of Silence
Could Win: Any of the other five
Last year was one helluva year for documentaries, which makes selecting a winner out of these a tough call. All six nominees have more than strong cases but The Look of Silence seems to have the more buzz surrounding it. That’s the only thing I can base it on. The other five are just as terrific.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Nominees: Embrace of the Serpent, Girlhood, Mustang, A Pigeon Sat on a Branch Reflecting on Existence, Son of Saul
Will Win: Son of Saul
Could Win: Mustang or Embrace of the Serpent
History shows that this is always the hardest category to predict at the Spirits and this year is no different. Son of Saul is probably the safest bet but Mustang is a genuine contender not just here but at the Oscars, too. Don't look past Embrace of the Serpent which opened at the box office this past weekend and started strongly.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees: Cary Fukunaga (Beasts of No Nation), Michael Gioulakis (It Follows), Ed Lachman (Carol), Reed Morano (Meadowland), Joshua James Richards (Songs My Brothers Taught Me)
Will Win: Ed Lachman (Carol)
Could Win: Cary Fukunaga (Beasts of No Nation)
This may well be Carol’s only award of the night if it doesn't win in Best Film, Director or Actress – which could easily happen. If cinematographer Ed Lachman isn't rewarded for his beautiful work, Carey Fukunaga will be in pole position to steal the award from his grasp.
BEST EDITING
Nominees: Heaven Knows What, Spotlight, Room, It Follows, Manos Sucias
Will Win: Spotlight
Could Win: Beasts of No Nation
Spotlight is a brilliantly executed piece. When a film has multiple strands of its narrative going on at once, a strong edit is vital if the film is to flow. For that reason, I believe Spotlight wins.
JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD (Best film made for under $500k)
Nominees: Advantageous, Christmas Again, Heaven Knows What, Krisha, Out of My Hand
Will Win: Heaven Knows Best
Could Win: Krisha
Out of the five nominees, Heaven Knows What is the only one that has a nomination elsewhere. With that thought, it probably has a smidgen more love than the other four. I could be completely wrong as this is the Spirits after all.
ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD (BEST ENSEMBLE)
The cast of Spotlight will receive this award as it was predetermined before the nominations were announced.
Winners will be presented on Saturday, February 27, 2016. The show will be broadcast live exclusively on IFC at 2:00 PM PT/ 5:00 PM ET.
