Predictions for the 2015 Independent Spirit Awards
Tonight, the Independent Spirit Awards will be handed out to the best independent movies and actors of the past twelve months. This years nominees include a whole host of Oscar contenders making it a great indication of how the Academy may go tomorrow night. Below are our predictions for tonights show.
best film
Nominees: Birdman, Boyhood, Love Is Strange, Selma, and Whiplash.
Like most award shows this year, Boyhood and Birdman do battle once again. Boyhood took home the BAFTA, the Guild gave Birdman love, and both shared a Golden Globe each — granted both nominated in opposing categories. Boyhood will be the slight favourite here given its the more indie of the two movies. It'll be tight call ultimately.
Winner: Boyhood
best director
Nominees: Damien Chazelle (Whiplash), Ava DuVernay (Selma), Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman), Richard Linklater (Boyhood), David Zellner (Kumiko, the Treasure Hunter)
Much like the Best Film category, Best Director will be a two horse race, but Linklater probably has the bigger advantage over Inarritu. He made a film over a 12-year period, that's some feat, and we see them handing him the gong. It also helps that Linklater has embodied an independent filmmaking spirit throughout his career.
Winner: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)
best male lead
Nominees: André Benjamin (Jimi: All Is By My Side), Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler), Michael Keaton (Birdman), John Lithgow (Love Is Strange), David Oyelowo (Selma)
With no Eddie Redmayne (that's because The Theory of Everything isn't an indie film), Keaton is an almost lock to win. His biggest competitors will come in the form of Oyelowo and Gyllenhaal, but we can't see them stopping Keaton here.
Winner: Michael Keaton (Birdman)
best female lead
Nominees: Marion Cotillard (The Immigrant), Rinko Kikuchi (Kumiko, the Treasure Hunter), Julianne Moore (Still Alice), Jenny Slate (Obvious Slate), Tilda Swinton (Only Lovers Left Alive)
There is no reason to think Julianne Moore would lose this. She's won every other incarnation of Best Actress at every other award show, and we don't the trend stopping here.
Winner: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
best supporting male
Nominees: Riz Ahmed (Nightcrawler), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood), Alfred Molina (Love Is Strange), Edward Norton (Birdman), J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
J.K. Simmons' winning streak will continue as we expect him to land this gong. On another note, nice to see some love for Riz Ahmed with his nomination.
Winner: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
best supporting female
Nominees: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood), Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year), Carmen Ejogo (Selma), Emma Stone (Birdman), Andrea Suarez Paz (Stand Clear of the Closing Doors)
Much like Simmons' winning streak will live on, so will Patricia Arquette's. Compared to other award shows there isn't much in way of real competition for Arquette, so she's an absolute shoo-in to win.
Winner: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
best screenplay
Nominees: Big Eyes, A Most Violent Year, Nightcrawler, Only Lovers Left Alive, Love Is Strange
Easily the most intriguing and unpredictable award of the night. Any of these five could win, all are hugely original and brilliantly executed on screen, but if we're sticking our neck on the line — Nightcrawler probably just edges it.
Winner: Nightcrawler
best first feature film
Nominees: Dear White People, A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night, Nightcrawler, Obvious Child, She’s Lost Control
Another hard to call category, but if Nightcrawler is going to win Best Screenplay it would be strange if it wasn't awarded Best First Feature. Dan Gilroy done a fine job, and this movie deserves recognition after it got overlooked by the Oscars.
Winner: Nightcrawler
best first screenplay
Nominees: Appropriate Behavior, Dear White People, Little Accidents, The One I Love, She’s Lost Control
Yet again, another tight category. Considering the exposure Dear White People has received compared to the other four nominees, we see it nabbing this award. Dear White People's writer-director Justin Simien has a big future, too.
Winner: Dear White People
round-up of the other categories...
Best Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki (Birdman)
Best Editing: Whiplash
Best International Film: Leviathan
Best Documentary: CitizenFour
John Cassavetes Award (Best Film Under $500,000): Blue Ruin
Truer Than Fiction Award (Talent in Non-Fiction Film): Dan Krauss (The Kill Team)
Someone to Watch Award (Talent in Narrative Film): Ana Lily Amirpour (A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night)
